CAM: Market development of electric cars in Europe varies but remains constant

According to the latest figures from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), average registrations of battery-electric cars in Europe have only fallen by 5.5 per cent this year. However, there are major differences between the countries, as the electric mobility market has developed favourably in most of them, while the outlook for 2025 is positive!

Specifically, 1,213,262 battery-electric cars were newly registered in Europe between January and August of the current year, as CAM Director Stefan Bratzel writes in a LinkedIn post. In the same period in 2023, there were 1,283,776 new electric cars. Under ‘Europe,’ the CAM summarises the EU states, the four EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland), and the United Kingdom. That is important because the EFTA markets are ultimately also included in the calculation of the manufacturers’ CO2 fleet limits! The situation is different for the UK, which has had its own CO2 regulation since leaving the EU.

Bratzel sees “significant shifts in the European market.” In a nutshell, you could say that what is sold less in Germany is now sold in other countries. “While total BEV registrations across the EU, EFTA, and the United Kingdom declined by 5.5% compared to the previous year, there are opposing developments in key markets,” says the automotive expert.

Most electrive readers will be familiar with the situation in Germany. In the period from January to August, new BEV registrations fell by a whopping 32 per cent this year, with the rush before the end of the environmental bonus subsidy for commercial owners leading to a strong one-off effect in summer 2023 on the one hand – and the abrupt end of the environmental bonus in December at the start of 2024 putting pressure on sales on the other. Either way, 241,911 EVs instead of 355,575 vehicles in the same period last year are a significant drop in Europe’s largest car market.

In contrast, “the United Kingdom exhibited strong growth of 10.5%, reaching 213,544 BEV registrations. With this momentum, the UK is closing the gap with Germany and could soon take the leading position in the European market,” says Bratzel. If the situation in Germany does not change soon, the UK could soon be Europe’s largest electric car market. France, now in third place (188,575 BEVs, +8.1 per cent), is also catching up. However, as markets such as Germany and France, unlike the UK, are relevant for the CO2 fleet limits from 2025, manufacturers in these markets are likely to step up their EV efforts soon – the recent price reduction for the VW ID.3 is probably one such example.

Image: CAM

It is not only the three major markets that are seeing “notable developments,” as Bratzel puts it. Contrary to what one might expect, it was not Norway or the Netherlands that took fourth place (in Norway, EV sales fell by 3.2 per cent to 68,431 units in the current year, albeit with a very high EV market share in the country at the same time). Belgium has even overtaken Sweden with an increase of 41.3 per cent and has jumped to fourth place with 84,137 electric vehicles – an “impressive increase,” says Bratzel.

The real leap will come in 2025

Among the top ten countries, however, Denmark recorded the highest growth at 50.8 per cent. So far this year, Denmark has registered 51,945 new electric cars, compared to just 34,440 units a year ago. That means the country has only climbed from ninth to eighth place but is only just behind Sweden (54,304 new EVs). In Sweden – as in Germany – a new subsidy policy has significantly impacted sales, which are 21 per cent down on the previous year. The top ten is rounded off by Italy (35,785 BEVs, -12.3 per cent) and Spain (31,665 BEVs, +2.5 per cent).

The key question now is how things will develop in the coming months. Ultimately, car manufacturers will be conscientious to achieve their CO2 fleet targets and, at the same time, not sell too many electric cars. It is also to be expected that sales measures and campaigns will ultimately result in roughly the same number of electric cars registered in the relevant European markets as in the previous year. The real leap is not expected until next year, as ICCT Europe boss Peter Mock impressively explains in our latest (German) podcast. Mock speaks of “25 per cent battery vehicles” as an estimate – perhaps a little less, perhaps a little more. “And this figure will remain unchanged until 2029.”

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